fred5k
0xf4193868f769301f8c046382fd34fe0e1efa5f89
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $126.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,806
- Open portfolio
- $272.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,806
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$332.00at 0.070Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7?
- +$251.85at 0.090Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12?
- +$210.68at 0.080Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4?
- +$208.73at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12?
- +$186.93at 0.070Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 18:07 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.07 |
| 08-04 16:02 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 15:52 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.24 | $12.00 |
| 08-04 15:47 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.36 |
| 08-04 13:07 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 12:17 | Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.2 | $9.80 |
| 08-04 10:02 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.07 | $4.97 |
| 08-04 09:52 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.91 |
| 08-04 04:02 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.89 |
| 08-03 20:02 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 20:02 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.96 |
| 08-03 18:02 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.22 | $3.96 |
| 08-03 16:47 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.61 |
| 08-03 16:47 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.13 | $11.96 |
| 08-03 11:57 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |