PollyKelli
0xf3f60fd71909c6f4977d7aaac807b79059e0bc90
- Realised P&L
- $-50.80
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 132
- Open portfolio
- $32.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded132
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.840 | $12.60 | +$0.15 |
| Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026? · No | 0.463 | 0.185 | $5.02 | −$7.53 |
| Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.950 | $3.39 | +$0.39 |
| No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.865 | 0.975 | $3.38 | +$0.38 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.155 | $2.33 | +$0.82 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No | 0.740 | 0.745 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.825 | $1.27 | +$0.08 |
| USD1 depeg by December 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.110 | $1.11 | −$1.93 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes | 0.770 | 0.780 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.35at 0.154Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
- +$2.46at 0.105Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
- +$2.45at 0.775Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$2.27at 0.091Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
- +$2.15at 0.480Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 19:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.45 |
| 07-29 17:24 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.83 | $12.45 |
| 07-27 07:46 | No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8649999841 | $3.00 |
| 07-26 07:18 | Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.00 |
| 07-26 07:13 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.9 | $3.25 |
| 07-26 01:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7869999351 | $2.00 |
| 07-24 08:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 07:15 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.25 |
| 07-22 18:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.775999702 | $2.00 |
| 07-21 00:53 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.7699999741 | $1.19 |
| 07-18 18:21 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | SELL | 0.97 | $2.65 |
| 07-11 18:19 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $3.39 |
| 07-05 06:11 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 06:02 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 05:43 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |