stormy0012345
0xf301e0475240f644b72793d3ba3653fb1f484ce1
- Realised P&L
- $42.6k
- Volume
- $2.52M
- Markets traded
- 2,138
- Open portfolio
- $177.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,138
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration44.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.335 | $100.50 | −$34.50 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.600 | 0.640 | $76.80 | +$4.80 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.389 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$85.64 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.10 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner · G2 Esports | 0.205 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.75 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET · Down | 0.499 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.6kat 0.307Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?
- +$10.1kat 0.166Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
- +$3.8kat 0.346Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$2.6kat 0.176Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8?
- +$2.4kat 0.228Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 11:37 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2675 | $32.10 |
| 07-19 07:36 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.41 | $82.00 |
| 07-15 09:01 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $20.70 |
| 07-08 16:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $17.95 |
| 07-08 15:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 07-08 09:43 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-08 08:57 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs | BUY | 0.3 | $30.00 |
| 07-08 08:56 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.11 | $22.00 |
| 07-08 08:43 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs | BUY | 0.52 | $78.00 |
| 07-08 08:31 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs | BUY | 0.59 | $23.60 |
| 07-07 07:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.76 | $22.80 |
| 07-06 21:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 07-06 20:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET | BUY | 0.27 | $2.70 |
| 07-06 17:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.42 | $12.60 |
| 07-06 17:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.42 | $12.60 |