PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Euphemism

0xf2858496f399396e28916281a7007d1320aaab24

Realised P&L
$17.9k
Volume
$1.75M
Markets traded
248
Open portfolio
$14.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded248
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration67.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · No0.8161.000$9.7k+$1.8k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · No0.9941.000$3.0k+$18.00
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.8780.924$1.4k+$69.75
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0310.247$71.78+$62.72
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0310.011$71.36$122.56
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0180.007$46.54$67.57
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0180.002$35.41$395.30
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0180.002$30.00$328.89
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · No0.5500.655$25.48+$4.08
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0180.004$21.72$92.38
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0190.003$15.27$98.49
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0180.001$11.80$418.90
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0190.003$4.50$30.45
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0190.001$3.05$110.88
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0190.001$1.93$70.83

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-29 17:57Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.8163350602$7.9k
07-27 16:51Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsBUY0.53$2.4k
07-27 12:24Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.994$3.0k
07-14 20:33Spain to win the second half?BUY0.66$536.40
06-30 19:34Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.717$2.6k
06-26 10:09Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?BUY0.86$13.40
06-22 16:07Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY0.68$165.12
06-22 16:05Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?SELL0.9629927973$156.43
06-22 16:02Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?BUY0.6993549358$975.75
06-21 16:46Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5BUY0.07$348.92
06-20 10:36Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5BUY0.39$1.2k
06-20 10:34Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.4$800.00
06-20 10:20Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.51$2.1k
06-19 18:33Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?SELL0.82$819.98
06-18 21:35Spread: Canada (-1.5)BUY0.45$4.5k