ryancoin75
0xf227a746491385a5ad095c20ac9b3a3f5f526a47
- Realised P&L
- $-42.02
- Volume
- $23.3k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $0.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.015 | $0.40 | −$1.31 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.018 | $0.37 | −$0.91 |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? · No | 0.944 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.48 |
| Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.84 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.37at 0.919Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?
- +$3.04at 0.956Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?
- +$2.80at 0.211Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
- +$2.48at 0.929Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 15?
- +$2.20at 0.981Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 04:30 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? | BUY | 0.919 | $49.63 |
| 06-02 01:32 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? | BUY | 0.047 | $1.13 |
| 05-25 16:03 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.944 | $42.48 |
| 05-25 12:50 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? | BUY | 0.974 | $29.22 |
| 05-25 07:53 | Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? | BUY | 0.919 | $20.22 |
| 05-18 22:25 | Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? | BUY | 0.956 | $65.96 |
| 05-13 19:04 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.024 | $0.68 |
| 05-13 14:47 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 15? | BUY | 0.929 | $32.52 |
| 05-13 10:57 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.931 | $17.69 |
| 05-13 00:44 | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY | 0.031 | $5.89 |
| 05-12 17:40 | Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.018 | $1.31 |
| 05-12 09:19 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | BUY | 0.052 | $3.38 |
| 05-12 07:45 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.974 | $93.50 |
| 05-12 05:08 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $93.41 |
| 05-11 10:07 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.038 | $7.30 |