AlanRice2950
0xf1b84f9fe736a182b049a3bb4d2cb3865efa84e3
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $193.2k
- Markets traded
- 219
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded219
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.885 | $713.31 | +$197.47 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.200 | 0.880 | $553.52 | +$427.72 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.501 | 0.302 | $98.31 | −$64.51 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.930 | $29.76 | +$3.52 |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.265 | $11.93 | −$2.47 |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.005 | $0.21 | −$13.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$811.10at 0.166Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
- +$752.00at 0.200Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
- +$431.25at 0.310Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?
- +$301.76at 0.240Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15)
- +$277.22at 0.170Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 14:58 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.522 | $4.18 |
| 04-21 02:51 | Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? | SELL | 0.4 | $344.40 |
| 04-11 17:15 | Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.23 | $179.17 |
| 04-11 16:48 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | SELL | 0.65 | $716.95 |
| 04-11 05:53 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | SELL | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 04-11 02:47 | Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $26.24 |
| 04-10 22:56 | Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.24 | $186.96 |
| 04-10 20:08 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.67 | $745.71 |
| 04-09 14:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.74 | $125.80 |
| 04-09 13:47 | Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.29 | $94.83 |
| 04-09 13:46 | Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.28 | $13.72 |
| 04-09 13:44 | Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.28 | $14.28 |
| 04-08 20:29 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $125.80 |
| 04-08 20:19 | Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.3 | $128.10 |
| 04-08 19:51 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $515.84 |