aistisskas
0xf1438c4a0cc38a48cf40a5ade4ac08faaa1691cd
- Realised P&L
- $-14.55
- Volume
- $20.2k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $3.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 14? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.772 | $0.84 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.03at 0.660UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$0.30at 0.952Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$0.20at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26?
- +$0.20at 0.999Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?
- +$0.20at 0.910UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-14 23:54 | Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.91 | $0.99 |
| 04-14 23:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 04-14 23:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 14? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.00 |
| 01-26 20:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | SELL | 0.998 | $299.70 |
| 01-26 20:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $300.00 |
| 01-26 17:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | SELL | 0.998 | $209.60 |
| 01-26 16:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $209.81 |
| 01-26 16:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? | BUY | 0.998 | $100.00 |
| 01-26 16:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $200.00 |
| 01-26 01:50 | Will Solana dip to $110 January 19-25? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 01-26 01:50 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 19-25? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 01-26 01:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? | BUY | 0.9739999922 | $1.00 |
| 11-21 14:15 | Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? | BUY | 0.975 | $5.00 |
| 11-21 14:15 | Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? | BUY | 0.9520000013 | $6.00 |
| 11-16 01:39 | UFC 322: Haddon vs. Wellmaker (Bantamweight, Prelims) | SELL | 0.5 | $0.98 |