a6483
0xf0ffc157a87ec5a2861c38671a9a986c67561227
- Realised P&L
- $-11.47
- Volume
- $33.2k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $5.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.995 | 0.991 | $5.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.43at 0.875Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 24?
- +$1.08at 0.933Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
- +$0.86at 0.007Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.57at 0.951Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$0.48at 0.958Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 01:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.995 | $6.00 |
| 08-04 01:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9929999434 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 01:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 8? | BUY | 0.995 | $6.00 |
| 07-06 01:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7? | BUY | 0.9879999984 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 12:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? | BUY | 0.9869998253 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 12:14 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.00 |
| 04-28 15:06 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.00 |
| 04-28 15:06 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999254 | $10.00 |
| 04-28 15:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? | BUY | 0.984999999 | $10.00 |
| 04-28 15:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29? | BUY | 0.9889999448 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 03:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999996 | $9.98 |
| 04-07 03:27 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9509999996 | $11.00 |
| 04-07 03:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? | BUY | 0.978999914 | $10.97 |
| 04-07 03:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? | BUY | 0.9869999521 | $10.98 |
| 04-07 03:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? | BUY | 0.97 | $10.95 |