yesbaby991
0xef49fe0800f93ab49d1a4943eb8bdf9f1ec0d27b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $61.9k
- Markets traded
- 760
- Open portfolio
- $73.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded760
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.155 | $74.19 | +$11.42 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.011 | $1.50 | −$0.67 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4? · No | 0.863 | 0.001 | $0.09 | −$149.91 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.455 | 0.001 | $0.08 | −$71.92 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.367 | 0.001 | $0.08 | −$56.92 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9? · No | 0.454 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$175.22at 0.255Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$156.94at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
- +$112.01at 0.608Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
- +$106.97at 0.190Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 1?
- +$103.57at 0.448Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 20:24 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.15 | $23.93 |
| 08-04 19:47 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 08-04 19:47 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.1616666667 | $6.79 |
| 08-04 18:38 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.62 | $30.62 |
| 08-04 18:33 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $369.61 |
| 08-04 18:24 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 08-04 18:24 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.18 | $7.38 |
| 08-04 18:23 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.1810526316 | $17.20 |
| 08-04 15:12 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.56 | $27.66 |
| 08-04 15:05 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0151946618 | $2.17 |
| 08-04 15:00 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1382897212 | $32.34 |
| 08-04 14:55 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.13 | $65.00 |
| 08-04 14:54 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.38 |
| 08-04 14:48 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.963 | $72.22 |
| 08-04 05:44 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.11875 | $4.75 |