SadMax1
0xeeff18351334a1ed2cce2224f57950a2f77f9b38
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $113.5k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $12.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? · Yes | 0.864 | 0.625 | $12.16 | −$4.64 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$177.99 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yes | 0.561 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$283.04 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.454Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?
- +$269.44at 0.910Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$118.56at 0.927Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
- +$108.58at 0.918Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- +$76.08at 0.953Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 20:23 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $40.00 |
| 07-27 20:22 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $67.20 |
| 07-27 20:09 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $29.82 |
| 07-27 20:07 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? | BUY | 0.8584090087 | $94.91 |
| 07-22 19:45 | Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? | BUY | 0.953 | $953.00 |
| 07-20 16:18 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $388.80 |
| 07-20 14:03 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | SELL | 0.5541140788 | $296.88 |
| 07-20 14:02 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.7065500562 | $8.1k |
| 07-18 07:16 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $136.47 |
| 07-18 05:30 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $34.80 |
| 07-15 10:41 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $19.50 |
| 07-14 15:41 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.4185400887 | $229.32 |
| 07-14 15:15 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31? | BUY | 0.955 | $200.55 |
| 07-14 15:12 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31? | BUY | 0.9468900344 | $275.55 |
| 07-14 14:48 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31? | BUY | 0.9547168117 | $1.1k |