Kazirg
0xebb16b55eddb92d29b72f76bce1ca1fb83d059b8
- Realised P&L
- $-1.59
- Volume
- $14.1k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $1.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.725 | $1.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 8? · No | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.88at 0.010Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?
- +$4.06at 0.330Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
- +$2.55at 0.660Raptors vs. Pistons
- +$1.69at 0.64025% South Korea tariff in effect by August 1?
- +$1.13at 0.640Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 20:36 | Will Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 07-29 20:35 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | SELL | 0.53 | $0.84 |
| 06-30 20:05 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 05-07 19:27 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 04-15 18:56 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 04-15 18:55 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | SELL | 0.76 | $1.03 |
| 04-15 18:55 | Colorado bill to decriminalize sex work becomes law in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.02 |
| 03-05 19:37 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 02-26 19:15 | Colorado bill to decriminalize sex work becomes law in 2026? | BUY | 0.8299992198 | $1.00 |
| 02-19 19:39 | Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 02-19 19:38 | Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.24 |
| 02-19 19:38 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.74 | $1.87 |
| 01-11 20:14 | Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 01-11 20:14 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |
| 12-06 20:56 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999656 | $2.00 |