0xe9b5064185c96d09c5e1f60a81850f752a29c7cf
- Realised P&L
- $-6.08
- Volume
- $439.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $84.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.597 | 0.880 | $52.80 | +$17.00 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.974 | 0.966 | $7.72 | −$0.07 |
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.982 | $6.87 | +$0.14 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.924 | 0.955 | $4.77 | +$0.15 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.940 | $4.70 | +$0.25 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.437 | 0.120 | $1.92 | −$5.08 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.065 | $1.69 | −$3.37 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.583 | 0.306 | $1.53 | −$1.38 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.280 | $1.40 | −$0.20 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.204 | 0.076 | $0.77 | −$1.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.16at 0.500China coup attempt before 2027?
- +$0.55at 0.901Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.18at 0.205AI bubble burst in 2026?
- +$0.14at 0.321Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.14at 0.810Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 14:04 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $6.48 |
| 06-13 07:47 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.974 | $7.79 |
| 06-01 11:30 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $4.62 |
| 06-01 11:30 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 06-01 11:29 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 06-01 11:29 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $6.73 |
| 06-01 11:29 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.946 | $5.68 |
| 06-01 11:29 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.924 | $4.62 |
| 06-01 11:28 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.321 | $2.57 |
| 05-22 23:07 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $8.64 |
| 04-24 23:30 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.583 | $2.92 |
| 04-24 23:30 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.204 | $2.04 |
| 04-24 23:29 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.796 | $3.98 |
| 04-24 23:29 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 04-24 23:29 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.31 |