0xe6c8398fe516c30dcb80ada7cde5a2b486ea11a0
- Realised P&L
- $99.88
- Volume
- $32.1k
- Markets traded
- 275
- Open portfolio
- $574.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded275
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.456 | 0.450 | $98.77 | −$1.23 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.505 | 0.495 | $98.03 | −$1.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.303 | 0.290 | $95.69 | −$4.31 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.445 | $90.82 | −$9.18 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.409 | 0.365 | $89.11 | −$10.89 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.365 | $50.69 | +$0.69 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.345 | $49.27 | −$0.73 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.569 | 0.001 | $0.13 | −$149.87 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.463 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$49.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$597.29at 0.350Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
- +$338.01at 0.405Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?
- +$335.03at 0.374Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?
- +$141.26at 0.692Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?
- +$138.32at 0.550Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:32 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.3499999975 | $50.00 |
| 08-04 17:32 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 08-04 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4899999991 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.3030599264 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.5049504943 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 17:29 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4095904079 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 17:29 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4556126626 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 15:48 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.998 | $51.69 |
| 08-04 15:48 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.981 | $150.91 |
| 08-04 15:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $568.01 |
| 08-04 11:44 | Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.0895092637 | $25.99 |
| 08-04 07:18 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.3282061924 | $17.00 |
| 08-04 07:14 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.325023881 | $50.00 |
| 08-04 07:14 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.4625820303 | $50.00 |
| 08-04 07:13 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.9878911451 | $118.70 |