orneto
0xe5f86dd09b79847d6705df1b98d231f116e7cf02
- Realised P&L
- $5.92
- Volume
- $498.28
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $11.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.086 | $5.30 | +$3.36 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.070 | $4.08 | +$1.08 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.077 | $1.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.025 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.015 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.010 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.82at 0.310Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$0.55at 0.022Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.31at 0.320Will Trump post "Son" on Truth Social this week?
- +$0.15at 0.340US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$0.14at 0.620Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 13:42 | Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 06-15 14:32 | Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.025 | $0.54 |
| 06-09 12:39 | Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0437367514 | $1.02 |
| 06-08 03:06 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 04:21 | Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0819999311 | $1.00 |
| 05-20 17:05 | Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0223994266 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 22:18 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.79 |
| 05-18 03:25 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.79 | $1.02 |
| 05-18 03:11 | Will Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.0429999606 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 23:55 | Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.0989999118 | $1.00 |
| 04-07 13:47 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 03-30 02:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.89 |
| 03-27 17:12 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.39 | $1.15 |
| 03-26 14:50 | Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0603960434 | $1.00 |
| 03-25 16:40 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |