zrathree
0xe425ecabaf87ce4d61038137c72c69c533bd9e9a
- Realised P&L
- $-892.93
- Volume
- $94.1k
- Markets traded
- 136
- Open portfolio
- $180.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded136
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.930 | 0.665 | $66.16 | −$26.37 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.125 | $33.38 | −$52.06 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · No | 0.945 | 0.979 | $29.37 | +$1.02 |
| Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.960 | 0.897 | $24.12 | −$1.68 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · No | 0.920 | 0.875 | $17.50 | −$0.90 |
| Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.986 | $9.86 | −$0.04 |
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? · No | 0.981 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.62 |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.80at 0.440Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$23.10at 0.769Will XRP reach $3.10 September 29-October 5?
- +$20.92at 0.298Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
- +$10.34at 0.890Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
- +$10.00at 0.800Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 12:28 | Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 08-03 12:27 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 07-30 02:51 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of July? | BUY | 0.993 | $24.82 |
| 07-30 02:51 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of July? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 07-30 02:50 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of July? | BUY | 0.991 | $4.96 |
| 07-30 02:49 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.945 | $28.35 |
| 07-30 02:49 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $28.20 |
| 07-30 02:48 | Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2? | BUY | 0.996 | $49.80 |
| 06-22 02:31 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $28.80 |
| 06-22 02:22 | Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? | BUY | 0.981 | $19.62 |
| 06-22 01:31 | Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.14 |
| 06-21 13:19 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? | BUY | 0.992 | $34.72 |
| 06-21 13:16 | Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? | BUY | 0.98975 | $19.80 |
| 06-21 13:15 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.00 |
| 06-21 09:16 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $38.72 |