gemblue
0xe2a8980b216ef034ac8649dc4dff15b15c499df1
- Realised P&L
- $-3.9k
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $323.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-19.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.288 | 0.195 | $323.02 | −$154.95 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$953.49 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? · Yes | 0.926 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$965.28at 0.720US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$300.00at 0.880Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$232.63at 0.758Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$-1000.00at 0.535US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 23:27 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2885437323 | $477.97 |
| 06-10 23:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? | BUY | 0.9262352243 | $2.0k |
| 04-08 07:20 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.3k |
| 04-08 07:05 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.2k |
| 04-08 07:03 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.5k |
| 04-05 12:33 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY | 0.7299999999 | $953.49 |
| 03-30 10:41 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | BUY | 0.7578137284 | $717.22 |
| 03-30 10:39 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.5k |
| 03-30 10:36 | US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | BUY | 0.5351739811 | $1000.00 |