TheUnfolding
0xdfb7c02247135c3edd2e6a8358f3991e4d299732
- Realised P&L
- $-348.21
- Volume
- $48.4k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $208.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.005 | $208.46 | −$42.94 |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump win 5 swing states? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Kamala do better in Georgia or Wisconsin? · Georgia | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 2.0%-3.0%? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump win 6 swing states? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Nevada be the closest state? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Republican candidate win Georgia by 1.0%-2.0%? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.09at 0.168Will Wisconsin be the closest state?
- +$73.05at 0.222Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep
- +$65.51at 0.459Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$26.93at 0.079Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%?
- +$14.02at 0.410Who will win young men?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 22:06 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $50.49 |
| 09-30 20:52 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $50.30 |
| 09-11 04:13 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.006 | $50.64 |
| 09-05 19:10 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.006 | $100.00 |
| 11-09 03:37 | Will Trump win 30% of Black men? | SELL | 0.00390009 | $0.22 |
| 11-08 22:18 | Who will win young men? | SELL | 0.985 | $24.02 |
| 11-08 22:17 | Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep | SELL | 0.9922637687 | $94.05 |
| 11-08 22:17 | Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | SELL | 0.9727430032 | $116.09 |
| 11-08 22:16 | Who will win white women? | SELL | 0.981 | $17.21 |
| 11-08 22:15 | Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? | SELL | 0.29 | $36.93 |
| 11-06 20:53 | Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1.0%? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.83 |
| 11-06 20:53 | Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 11-06 20:49 | Trump wins 306-232 - AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI, NC | SELL | 0.001 | $0.23 |
| 11-06 20:48 | 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.01 | $0.63 |
| 11-06 20:46 | Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%? | SELL | 0.013 | $2.31 |