CutyOie
0xdeb3d6b3b2d39641cb50e77362c832059b0dfcf7
- Realised P&L
- $-10.18
- Volume
- $325.89
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $16.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 1.000 | $14.00 | +$9.80 |
| Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.950 | $1.25 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.840 | $1.00 | −$0.10 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.12 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.90at 0.370Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$3.12at 0.974Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?
- +$1.02at 0.890Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.86at 0.924Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$0.49at 0.971Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-01 12:20 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 03-01 12:19 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.93 | $8.14 |
| 01-05 13:06 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.4099999756 | $3.36 |
| 01-05 13:04 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.36999996 | $3.24 |
| 01-05 12:59 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $4.20 |
| 12-24 11:13 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 12-08 09:17 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.10 |
| 12-08 09:10 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $8.26 |
| 12-01 11:35 | Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 11-26 12:15 | Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | BUY | 0.987 | $9.87 |
| 11-23 17:57 | Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | BUY | 0.948 | $6.64 |
| 11-20 20:46 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | SELL | 0.89 | $8.90 |
| 11-05 13:54 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 10-30 08:48 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 10-29 16:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? | BUY | 0.974 | $116.88 |