0xdb7c2873b678c83a145e644d16f1ac6d108cfe1e
- Realised P&L
- $-9.47
- Volume
- $146.83
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $1.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.110 | $0.70 | −$1.79 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.350 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.347 | 0.070 | $0.44 | −$1.76 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.034 | $0.17 | −$2.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.01at 0.995Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?
- +$0.00at 0.996Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?
- +$0.00at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?
- +$0.00at 0.999Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$0.00at 0.999Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 10:26 | Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699994984 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 10:26 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.25 |
| 03-14 10:26 | Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 01-07 08:47 | Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 01-07 08:47 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 01-07 08:47 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199995392 | $1.00 |
| 12-29 12:38 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $9.99 |
| 12-29 12:35 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 12-29 12:35 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $9.99 |
| 12-29 12:33 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999269 | $10.00 |
| 12-29 12:32 | Trump out as President in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $9.99 |
| 12-29 12:31 | Trump out as President in 2025? | BUY | 0.997999908 | $10.00 |
| 12-29 12:30 | Modi out in 2025? | SELL | 0.995 | $9.97 |
| 12-29 12:29 | Modi out in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 12-29 12:27 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | SELL | 0.993 | $9.95 |