Castiell
0xda58787f4cdf052a58c7c560cf8acbe4a4e64e79
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $1.56M
- Markets traded
- 2,525
- Open portfolio
- $8.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,525
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.45at 0.357Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?
- +$31.96at 0.385Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9?
- +$29.53at 0.145Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?
- +$28.38at 0.413Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 8?
- +$25.63at 0.369Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 22:52 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.97 |
| 08-04 22:10 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $648.70 |
| 08-04 20:58 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 84°F or higher on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $38.60 |
| 08-04 20:46 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 75°F or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.997 | $600.00 |
| 08-04 20:45 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 75°F or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.996 | $440.03 |
| 08-04 20:20 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on August 5? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.47 |
| 08-04 20:19 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.46 |
| 08-04 19:45 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $509.39 |
| 08-04 19:40 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $914.06 |
| 08-04 19:33 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.59 |
| 08-04 18:35 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C or higher on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 08-04 18:27 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $408.58 |
| 08-04 17:00 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 08-04 16:59 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $639.36 |
| 08-04 15:42 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $885.20 |