ry6l2w
0xd8f5553c83aa04488fe7f2e53b502d2d441fc35e
- Realised P&L
- $-267.60
- Volume
- $43.0k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $48.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.670 | $31.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.949 | 1.000 | $13.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.340 | $2.67 | −$4.33 |
| Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.011 | $0.35 | −$8.65 |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? · No | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$180.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.85at 0.770US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$13.55at 0.930US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$9.28at 0.683Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?
- +$8.36at 0.695Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$6.98at 0.851Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 03:05 | Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9489999983 | $13.00 |
| 06-10 03:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $180.00 |
| 06-01 01:34 | Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999911 | $7.00 |
| 06-01 01:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $180.00 |
| 06-01 01:30 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $161.84 |
| 06-01 01:30 | Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $25.22 |
| 05-27 13:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999988 | $125.00 |
| 05-27 13:09 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? | SELL | 0.9748143322 | $23.94 |
| 05-27 13:09 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9436386968 | $51.84 |
| 05-18 06:53 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? | BUY | 0.8549999711 | $21.00 |
| 05-18 06:51 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999958 | $50.00 |
| 05-18 06:50 | Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.2997651839 | $9.00 |
| 05-18 06:50 | Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $21.00 |
| 05-18 06:50 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.8514851274 | $40.00 |
| 05-18 06:49 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $21.35 |