AbigailHolland4668
0xd80d0465577d88c0f609daa8fb9b90eec2aeb42b
- Realised P&L
- $154.00
- Volume
- $56.4k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5 · Under | 0.710 | 0.850 | $634.95 | +$104.58 |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.955 | $217.74 | +$33.06 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.490 | 1.000 | $188.00 | +$95.88 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.060 | $6.36 | −$19.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$303.36at 0.602Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$149.94at 0.480Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?
- +$104.94at 0.530Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?
- +$93.73at 0.650Will Trump say "Noem" during the State of the Union address?
- +$70.00at 0.860Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 14:26 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $178.89 |
| 04-23 10:01 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $184.68 |
| 04-11 23:33 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $184.80 |
| 03-22 15:27 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $361.68 |
| 03-16 01:10 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-02-22? | SELL | 0.54 | $110.16 |
| 03-16 01:10 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-02-22? | SELL | 0.54 | $3.24 |
| 03-16 00:25 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $195.84 |
| 03-16 00:24 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $64.60 |
| 03-14 09:54 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-02-22? | BUY | 0.73 | $153.30 |
| 03-14 08:58 | New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.71 | $530.37 |
| 03-14 06:26 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $467.26 |
| 02-23 18:43 | Will Trump say "Noem" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.63 | $8.19 |
| 02-23 18:41 | Will Trump say "Noem" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.63 | $202.23 |
| 02-23 18:40 | Will Trump say "Noem" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 02-23 18:38 | Will Trump say "Noem" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.63 | $268.38 |