GambleHelp
0xd7df101e5d97853403affd11a8b4f1f15a88c541
- Realised P&L
- $236.05
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $211.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? · No | 0.745 | 0.810 | $211.00 | +$16.85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET · Down | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.99 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET · Down | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.97 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET · Up | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.54 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET · Up | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.89 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET · Up | 0.409 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.47 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET · Up | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.78 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET · Down | 0.347 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.39at 0.591Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$29.85at 0.392Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
- +$25.33at 0.862Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?
- +$24.57at 0.449Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
- +$16.55at 0.800Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 18:10 | Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 07-04 18:10 | Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $0.92 |
| 07-04 18:10 | Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? | SELL | 0.920445 | $18.41 |
| 05-21 07:48 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | SELL | 0.888 | $10.44 |
| 05-21 07:48 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.64 | $5.61 |
| 04-11 04:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4899999951 | $2.78 |
| 04-11 04:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | SELL | 0.01 | $0.66 |
| 04-11 04:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | BUY | 0.189999988 | $8.83 |
| 04-11 04:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | BUY | 0.289999964 | $4.49 |
| 04-11 04:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET | SELL | 0.26 | $6.79 |
| 04-11 04:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $4.41 |
| 04-11 03:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET | SELL | 0.23 | $7.71 |
| 04-11 03:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $4.38 |
| 04-11 03:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET | SELL | 0.04 | $0.21 |
| 04-11 03:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $0.88 |