8637
0xd45818ee2c55b7e843f79cd5781ca432f8f4f35f
- Realised P&L
- $-111.28
- Volume
- $110.2k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $81.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.004 | $73.19 | −$115.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.33 | +$0.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.21 | +$0.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.18 | +$0.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.15 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.10 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.09 | +$0.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.05 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.00at 0.740Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31?
- +$1.11at 0.985Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?
- +$0.96at 0.995Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$0.76at 0.996Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July?
- +$0.56at 0.994Manchester City wins the Premier League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 12:12 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.21 |
| 06-29 12:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.18 |
| 06-29 12:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.9989990961 | $1.05 |
| 06-29 12:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 29? | BUY | 0.9989992616 | $1.15 |
| 06-29 12:08 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.9989994967 | $1.33 |
| 06-29 12:07 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $0.68 |
| 06-29 12:07 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.09 |
| 06-29 12:07 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.10 |
| 05-07 07:45 | Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.62 |
| 05-07 07:44 | Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 8? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.22 |
| 05-07 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.66 |
| 05-07 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.89 |
| 02-26 17:37 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $188.19 |
| 02-26 17:37 | Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 27? | BUY | 0.9909999947 | $1.30 |
| 02-26 17:37 | Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 27? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.90 |