PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

smotri

0xd3a7c69904a9a8a58be3df5c556430e0cf70b114

Realised P&L
$108.18
Volume
$9.8k
Markets traded
78
Open portfolio
$17.02

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded78
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration98.3% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.955$3.25+$0.12
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.9470.961$3.04+$0.04
Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? · No0.9640.952$2.96$0.04
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.925$2.92+$0.02
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No0.9920.895$2.71$0.29
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.9050.690$2.13$0.67
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? · No0.2380.000$0.00$38.00
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? · Yes0.7500.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-19 20:49France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5BUY0.5199999997$164.33
06-19 20:46Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027?BUY0.9049998368$2.80
06-19 20:46Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?BUY0.963999991$3.00
06-19 20:45Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9199999873$2.90
06-19 20:45Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?BUY0.9469998551$3.00
06-19 20:44Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9199999295$3.13
02-18 16:37Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?BUY0.997$3.00
02-18 16:37Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY0.9919998466$3.00
02-18 16:35Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.9529999954$6.00
02-18 16:34Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?BUY0.999$4.40
02-18 16:33Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?BUY0.99$5.50
02-18 16:31Will the US strike Nigeria next?BUY0.997$10.40
11-07 16:33Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8?BUY0.237999996$38.00
10-09 21:15Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?BUY0.998$1.20
10-09 21:14Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?SELL0.995$1.0k