smotri
0xd3a7c69904a9a8a58be3df5c556430e0cf70b114
- Realised P&L
- $108.18
- Volume
- $9.8k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $17.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.955 | $3.25 | +$0.12 |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.947 | 0.961 | $3.04 | +$0.04 |
| Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? · No | 0.964 | 0.952 | $2.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.925 | $2.92 | +$0.02 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.992 | 0.895 | $2.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.905 | 0.690 | $2.13 | −$0.67 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? · No | 0.238 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$38.00 |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$151.69at 0.520France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5
- +$0.30at 0.770DeepSeek R2 released before May?
- +$0.28at 0.953Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.26at 0.800NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?
- +$0.20at 0.830Will Trump and Elon say "Kickback" during their Feb 18 interview?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 20:49 | France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.5199999997 | $164.33 |
| 06-19 20:46 | Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9049998368 | $2.80 |
| 06-19 20:46 | Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.963999991 | $3.00 |
| 06-19 20:45 | Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999873 | $2.90 |
| 06-19 20:45 | Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9469998551 | $3.00 |
| 06-19 20:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999295 | $3.13 |
| 02-18 16:37 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison? | BUY | 0.997 | $3.00 |
| 02-18 16:37 | Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9919998466 | $3.00 |
| 02-18 16:35 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9529999954 | $6.00 |
| 02-18 16:34 | Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.40 |
| 02-18 16:33 | Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.50 |
| 02-18 16:31 | Will the US strike Nigeria next? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.40 |
| 11-07 16:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? | BUY | 0.237999996 | $38.00 |
| 10-09 21:15 | Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.20 |
| 10-09 21:14 | Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.0k |