0xd28A58D7752255D74F31B7430BE037Ce4895635A-1773949114502
0xd28a58d7752255d74f31b7430be037ce4895635a
- Realised P&L
- $-267.09
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $36.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.905 | $21.29 | +$1.29 |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.060 | $15.30 | −$33.15 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.98 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? · $60k | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.68 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.79at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$7.50at 0.850Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
- +$3.95at 0.760Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$3.68at 0.760Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$2.26at 0.570Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big Ten conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-31 18:08 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.86 | $11.03 |
| 05-12 12:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.999 | $183.72 |
| 04-20 10:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.75 | $137.93 |
| 04-20 10:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.993 | $2.05 |
| 04-20 10:06 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | SELL | 0.971 | $11.59 |
| 04-20 10:06 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.96 | $18.94 |
| 04-20 10:06 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $43.68 |
| 03-30 07:40 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.7799999984 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 07:35 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.8369999939 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 07:32 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.7599999483 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 07:30 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.7599999483 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 06:54 | Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999957 | $20.00 |
| 03-30 06:51 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.759999998 | $30.00 |
| 03-30 06:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9689999889 | $2.00 |
| 03-30 06:36 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.7599998541 | $5.00 |