geopoliticool
0xd1f073d75a660a5455fd154f59c80332076bf319
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $73.9k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $236.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · No | 0.118 | 0.105 | $235.43 | −$29.65 |
| Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.024 | $0.70 | −$1.19 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · Yes | 0.909 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$154.52 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$169.09 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.20 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$294.92at 0.927US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$-203.64at 0.057Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
- +$-544.74at 0.222Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 12:55 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.1199079097 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 12:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.3k |
| 08-02 08:43 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $97.90 |
| 08-02 08:42 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.0245639504 | $153.52 |
| 07-30 04:34 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.8906251337 | $49.96 |
| 07-30 04:31 | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.89 |
| 07-30 04:28 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $65.00 |
| 07-30 04:27 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.18 |
| 07-27 22:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.061 | $15.25 |
| 07-27 16:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $897.00 |
| 07-27 16:25 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.4k |
| 07-27 16:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.056985 | $341.91 |
| 07-27 16:23 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.006 | $55.20 |
| 05-27 12:45 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BUY | 0.014 | $9.80 |
| 05-26 04:01 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BUY | 0.018 | $1.08 |