pengulover344
0xd1b17f5442900fc4d83b4ec3aa9948981efd1945
- Realised P&L
- $-8.9k
- Volume
- $148.2k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $7.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · No | 0.967 | 0.972 | $2.9k | +$12.42 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.949 | 0.882 | $2.6k | −$198.49 |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.776 | 0.555 | $2.0k | −$793.93 |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.071 | $214.20 | −$2.2k |
| Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.200 | $37.52 | +$9.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$266.01at 0.895MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$146.32at 0.750Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?
- +$91.46at 0.890Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$51.22at 0.987Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?
- +$26.84at 0.991Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 02:48 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.946 | $23.65 |
| 05-22 02:48 | Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.964 | $209.56 |
| 04-30 07:13 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.981 | $981.00 |
| 04-30 07:12 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.95 | $188.26 |
| 04-15 09:21 | Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9651078091 | $727.44 |
| 04-15 09:21 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.9k |
| 03-23 22:35 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.3k |
| 03-23 22:28 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.08 |
| 03-23 22:27 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0032593834 | $28.08 |
| 02-27 05:03 | Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.983 | $12.96 |
| 02-18 22:03 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.26 | $343.19 |
| 02-18 22:02 | Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.999 | $999.00 |
| 01-27 22:09 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.2k |
| 01-14 01:06 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.91 | $35.49 |
| 01-14 01:04 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9127396 | $1.8k |