EltS
0xd0c6d5086f0490aa9a7f312b65e4310b398ad465
- Realised P&L
- $-524.82
- Volume
- $14.9k
- Markets traded
- 333
- Open portfolio
- $7.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded333
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.330 | $6.60 | +$0.00 |
| Will Brennan O'Neill win the 2026 PLL MVP award? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.022 | $1.10 | −$5.45 |
| Will Jordan L. Smith finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Rocket Classic? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.28 |
| Will Tony Finau finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Rocket Classic? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET · Up | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.62at 0.681Will Daddy Yankee perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
- +$9.37at 0.480Will England win on 2026-07-01?
- +$5.63at 0.640Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$3.99at 0.240Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 6?
- +$3.85at 0.690Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 05:26 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.403 | $8.06 |
| 08-04 06:20 | Will Rodri be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | SELL | 0.0096 | $0.48 |
| 08-04 06:19 | Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.048798 | $2.44 |
| 08-04 06:18 | Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.50 |
| 08-03 04:13 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 08-01 11:33 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $9.00 |
| 08-01 07:22 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.5847573739 | $6.15 |
| 08-01 05:18 | Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? | SELL | 0.845 | $16.90 |
| 07-31 20:22 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.60 |
| 07-31 20:21 | Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.036 | $0.72 |
| 07-31 20:19 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.29 | $4.94 |
| 07-31 20:07 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.10294 | $5.15 |
| 07-31 17:46 | Will the Republican Party win the WA-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 14:02 | Will Esteban "Steve" Guerra win the 2026 Cameron County Judge election? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 07-31 14:00 | Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |