0xce10f87277f03cc2a517220ae7d3f727dde83e2b
- Realised P&L
- $-621.51
- Volume
- $20.1k
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $4.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.88at 0.348Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
- +$74.00at 0.074Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
- +$72.57at 0.581Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
- +$52.16at 0.359Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
- +$51.65at 0.390Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Genmo AI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.24 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.56 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Mark Kaye be the FL-05 Republican nominee? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.28 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.72 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 60m by August 31? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.22 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $0.74 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Kamu Kirk win Big Brother season 28? | SELL | 0.111 | $1.11 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Shakira's monthly listeners figure hit 115m by August 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.33 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.62 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.10 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.82 |
| 07-30 17:36 | Will Shakira's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by August 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.07 |