TBDdotvote
0xcddfc51a11f4f4ecd563fa3493222fcda3345967
- Realised P&L
- $469.56
- Volume
- $91.5k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.766Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$806.98at 0.358Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$478.83at 0.286Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$329.23at 0.510Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$316.67at 0.240Biden drops out of presidential race?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.57975 | $579.75 |
| 07-30 21:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $294.80 |
| 07-30 21:44 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.7201608405 | $329.01 |
| 07-30 18:34 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.1094440225 | $50.00 |
| 07-29 19:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5299999995 | $200.00 |
| 07-29 18:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.83 | $178.44 |
| 07-28 18:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7939999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-28 15:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7849332801 | $1000.00 |
| 07-28 14:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7819999997 | $1.5k |
| 07-28 14:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7769069925 | $1000.00 |
| 07-28 13:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7634114775 | $1000.00 |
| 07-27 19:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.733 | $366.50 |
| 07-27 18:43 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.7217357078 | $150.36 |
| 07-27 18:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7329780102 | $1000.00 |
| 07-27 17:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $200.00 |