PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

TBDdotvote

0xcddfc51a11f4f4ecd563fa3493222fcda3345967

Realised P&L
$469.56
Volume
$91.5k
Markets traded
78
Open portfolio
$1.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded78
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration62.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes0.8230.998$1.0k+$183.38
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.5600.655$350.89+$50.89
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · No0.7390.895$242.27+$42.27
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2? · Yes0.5800.043$42.50$537.25
Will Joe Burrow lead the NFL in passing yards this season? · Yes0.1780.000$0.00$10.00
Yoon out of custody by July 31? · Yes0.3100.000$0.00$8.99
Obama divorce in 2025? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00$11.00
Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00$10.00
Will anyone say "Predict" or "Prediction" 10+ times during South Park's prediction market episode? · Yes0.6600.000$0.00$10.00
Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00$10.00
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes0.1440.000$0.00$35.00
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$10.00
Will anyone say "Poly" or "Poly-" 5+ times during South Park's prediction market episode? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00$5.00
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode? · No0.7540.000$0.00$50.00
Bills vs. Jaguars · Jaguars0.5200.000$0.00$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 14:35Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?BUY0.57975$579.75
07-30 21:45Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.52$294.80
07-30 21:44Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?SELL0.7201608405$329.01
07-30 18:34Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.1094440225$50.00
07-29 19:37Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5299999995$200.00
07-29 18:47Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.83$178.44
07-28 18:15Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7939999999$1000.00
07-28 15:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7849332801$1000.00
07-28 14:58Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7819999997$1.5k
07-28 14:54Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7769069925$1000.00
07-28 13:53Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7634114775$1000.00
07-27 19:12Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.733$366.50
07-27 18:43Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?SELL0.7217357078$150.36
07-27 18:33Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7329780102$1000.00
07-27 17:03Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7399999998$200.00