0xcA826304802BC148B3524003463cbF173b87E1F2-1775266797129
0xca826304802bc148b3524003463cbf173b87e1f2
- Realised P&L
- $11.1k
- Volume
- $534.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes | 0.243 | 0.225 | $4.3k | −$344.22 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.331 | 0.185 | $167.68 | −$132.32 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$278.31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.170Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$2.3kat 0.299US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.061Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$388.24at 0.340US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$357.84at 0.457Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 01:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $28.00 |
| 07-22 07:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.2438518792 | $4.6k |
| 07-22 07:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.6k |
| 07-15 15:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1246411012 | $4.4k |
| 06-18 11:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.3776652475 | $4.9k |
| 06-17 21:41 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.3865143171 | $2.0k |
| 06-17 21:41 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.3899999999 | $3.0k |
| 06-17 14:49 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.3592757798 | $1.6k |
| 06-16 23:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.3699999999 | $993.00 |
| 06-16 20:38 | France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.21 | $76.36 |
| 06-16 20:32 | Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.0299999997 | $100.00 |
| 06-16 20:31 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.0k |
| 06-16 19:07 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.6299999995 | $348.85 |
| 06-16 19:04 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.64 | $59.00 |
| 06-16 19:04 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | SELL | 0.36 | $360.00 |