PoliGold
0xc6d19e9655905576cf6cae095998d861bee021c7
- Realised P&L
- $-719.50
- Volume
- $135.7k
- Markets traded
- 250
- Open portfolio
- $37.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded250
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.026 | $13.71 | +$12.62 |
| Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.021 | $10.81 | +$9.75 |
| Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.018 | $9.90 | +$8.83 |
| Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.025 | $2.98 | +$2.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$490.85at 0.342Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?
- +$443.28at 0.046Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$180.25at 0.190Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$178.50at 0.490FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5
- +$169.92at 0.379Will Egypt win on 2026-03-26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-28 21:40 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.32 | $224.00 |
| 04-28 21:40 | Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.0042517623 | $0.51 |
| 04-28 21:35 | Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-28 21:34 | Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.0124242857 | $1.74 |
| 04-28 21:32 | Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.0291346429 | $2.45 |
| 04-28 21:30 | Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.0025811665 | $0.07 |
| 04-28 21:29 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 04-28 21:28 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.033 | $20.00 |
| 04-28 21:28 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.015 | $22.50 |
| 04-28 21:27 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.01 | $8.00 |
| 04-28 21:27 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.004 | $6.00 |
| 04-28 21:27 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.01 | $8.00 |
| 04-28 21:26 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.085 | $51.00 |
| 04-28 21:26 | Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0738206675 | $18.36 |
| 04-28 21:26 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.11 | $66.00 |