newEhmj
0xc63be5f651a4f178aab96fc481c4716915b213e9
- Realised P&L
- $18.13
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $1.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.014 | $1.40 | −$34.60 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.20 |
| Micron (MU) Up or Down on August 3? · Down | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on August 4? · Down | 0.795 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.60at 0.654Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$14.00at 0.850Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$13.00at 0.870Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
- +$10.50at 0.884Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$7.50at 0.810Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:23 | Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.90 |
| 08-04 16:23 | Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $7.50 |
| 08-04 16:16 | Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.89 | $6.68 |
| 08-04 16:14 | Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.7953867568 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 16:15 | Micron (MU) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 16:15 | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 06-29 14:18 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 06-27 10:26 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $98.90 |
| 06-21 05:24 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.032 | $3.20 |
| 06-21 05:23 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.30 |
| 01-31 01:23 | Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? | BUY | 0.9639999978 | $100.00 |
| 01-30 14:15 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 01-07 16:20 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $3.88 |
| 01-07 16:19 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.3499999562 | $4.00 |