0xC46f094934Bb4FC728D90aafB6B4AcC06c073130-1768924929951
0xc46f094934bb4fc728d90aafb6b4acc06c073130
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $107.4k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $37.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? · No | 0.909 | 0.905 | $15.4k | −$62.89 |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.994 | $11.1k | +$427.63 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes | 0.802 | 0.952 | $7.5k | +$1.2k |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.961 | 0.998 | $3.2k | +$117.26 |
| Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · No | 0.931 | 0.991 | $330.69 | +$20.10 |
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · No | 0.507 | 0.315 | $37.27 | −$22.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$149.32at 0.296US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$126.23at 0.921US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$56.89at 0.946US forces enter Iran by March 7?
- +$48.68at 0.987Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$39.51at 0.987US strike on Cuba by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:38 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.995 | $796.00 |
| 07-31 23:50 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.987 | $199.37 |
| 07-31 23:48 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.9875658387 | $1.4k |
| 07-22 08:55 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.9876234219 | $2.3k |
| 07-13 03:56 | Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.9857542852 | $212.78 |
| 07-13 03:17 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9632714967 | $1.5k |
| 07-13 03:12 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.925 | $9.25 |
| 07-13 03:10 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.961 | $2.2k |
| 07-08 18:18 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9252187735 | $480.22 |
| 07-07 23:33 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9 | $13.43 |
| 07-07 20:28 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.9654740004 | $2.5k |
| 07-07 20:24 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.8997650266 | $1.1k |
| 06-26 19:46 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.87 | $60.90 |
| 06-26 19:44 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.86 | $39.66 |
| 06-26 19:44 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.86 | $16.76 |