santanika
0xc450733a59ad35050029a435509b1732eaa96b80
- Realised P&L
- $20.7k
- Volume
- $2.93M
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $540.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.185 | $323.66 | −$170.48 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.610 | $216.61 | +$3.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.5kat 0.396Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$37.7kat 0.500Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$9.7kat 0.500Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.8kat 0.017Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.6kat 0.391Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 18:14 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.024 | $479.74 |
| 07-09 18:12 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.02 | $399.78 |
| 06-25 22:34 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | BUY | 0.967 | $562.76 |
| 06-25 22:24 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $15.07 |
| 06-25 15:05 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $95.03 |
| 06-14 22:16 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $16.80 |
| 06-14 22:16 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $16.80 |
| 06-14 22:15 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $44.12 |
| 06-11 14:21 | Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.004 | $312.00 |
| 06-11 14:21 | Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.008 | $623.99 |
| 06-11 13:04 | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.009 | $701.99 |
| 06-11 13:04 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.007 | $545.99 |
| 06-11 13:04 | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.004 | $312.00 |
| 06-11 10:40 | Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.011 | $857.99 |
| 06-11 10:27 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $1.4k |