sder4
0xc05b5127cc63ec0ce9691f38e72c73ae06c4b890
- Realised P&L
- $311.12
- Volume
- $10.6k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $39.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.955 | 0.975 | $23.71 | +$0.47 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.979 | 0.981 | $6.81 | +$0.01 |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · No | 0.999 | 0.993 | $3.09 | −$0.02 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.987 | 0.991 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.984 | 0.986 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.979 | 0.978 | $2.00 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$309.27at 0.440Oilers vs. Blues
- +$1.88at 0.962Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$0.53at 0.990Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?
- +$0.38at 0.993Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$0.18at 0.995Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 06:39 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.11 |
| 06-10 11:44 | Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9909999997 | $3.10 |
| 06-10 11:42 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9789999996 | $6.80 |
| 02-20 06:58 | Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 06:58 | Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? | BUY | 0.9969995269 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 06:58 | Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? | BUY | 0.9969996936 | $3.00 |
| 02-20 06:57 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9869999956 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 06:57 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.984 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 06:57 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9789999985 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 06:56 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.995 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 06:44 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $23.24 |
| 11-03 09:13 | Oilers vs. Blues | BUY | 0.44 | $243.00 |
| 09-28 02:53 | Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $53.48 |
| 08-30 12:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? | BUY | 0.998 | $53.37 |
| 07-06 07:23 | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $52.84 |