diversify
0xc01d56d1b266e32b6e83d7b25e1cffbbf8dd2e79
- Realised P&L
- $10.64
- Volume
- $38.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,245
- Open portfolio
- $30.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,245
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31? · No | 0.782 | 0.620 | $16.94 | −$4.42 |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? · No | 0.750 | 0.870 | $8.70 | +$1.20 |
| Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? · Yes | 0.975 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$0.13 |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$86.52at 0.279Georgetown Hoyas vs. Villanova Wildcats
- +$74.62at 0.180Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators
- +$68.00at 0.320Maple Leafs vs. Wild
- +$64.61at 0.003Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2?
- +$60.76at 0.110Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 22:44 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 04-12 22:44 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $6.69 |
| 04-12 22:44 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $23.10 |
| 04-12 22:44 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.22 | $26.40 |
| 04-12 22:43 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.27 | $13.50 |
| 04-12 22:42 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.7127942648 | $21.38 |
| 04-12 22:41 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 04-12 02:19 | Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.87 | $17.26 |
| 04-12 02:13 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30? | SELL | 0.991 | $9.91 |
| 04-11 20:25 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 04-11 19:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 04-09 16:33 | Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $4.45 |
| 04-09 16:32 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets | BUY | 0.6 | $5.86 |
| 04-09 16:32 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.54 | $2.63 |
| 04-09 16:31 | Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.55 | $21.41 |