notnameman
0xbd6ba189aeba6e65957393a6905990bec3ab0d98
- Realised P&L
- $-11.34
- Volume
- $912.98
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $46.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration54.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.085 | $25.50 | −$1.50 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.155 | $15.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.040 | $3.95 | +$1.75 |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.007 | $1.50 | −$0.60 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by July 31? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? · No | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.68 |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.71 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 06:43 | Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 07-22 06:20 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $4.68 |
| 07-22 06:19 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.023 | $1.51 |
| 07-21 08:06 | Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.78 |
| 07-21 08:01 | Iran invades Kuwait by July 31? | BUY | 0.021 | $2.10 |
| 07-21 06:28 | Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 09:25 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 07-20 09:09 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $27.00 |