happykidhehe
0xbb3586c675a38be0fd3a5174119b34a3a13c7998
- Realised P&L
- $-53.65
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $28.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · No | 0.590 | 0.745 | $14.90 | +$3.10 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.350 | $8.75 | −$2.00 |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.255 | $5.10 | −$2.90 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.255 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.419 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET · Up | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET · Down | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET · Up | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET · Down | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET · Up | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.28at 0.195Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
- +$16.47at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
- +$8.20at 0.590Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$5.80at 0.710Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery
- +$4.60at 0.770Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 18:04 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.412499996 | $30.00 |
| 07-11 16:23 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4299999961 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 16:21 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2549999828 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 07:51 | Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire | BUY | 0.21 | $1.68 |
| 05-21 07:50 | Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery | BUY | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 05-20 16:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 17:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 16:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 16:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 15:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $5.07 |
| 05-19 15:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 15:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999857 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 15:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | SELL | 0.4 | $3.20 |
| 05-19 15:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 15:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $2.00 |