0xbaf924bfb7c5024107eb2f87716d83d1d4f09f0e
- Realised P&L
- $3.17
- Volume
- $325.00
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $54.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No | 0.959 | 0.994 | $25.84 | +$0.91 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.943 | 0.955 | $16.23 | +$0.19 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.885 | $4.42 | −$0.07 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.825 | $4.13 | −$0.13 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.65 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.060 | $0.60 | −$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.22at 0.500Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$1.16at 0.505Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.35at 0.495Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.25at 0.830U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.04at 0.934Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 08:36 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 07-09 21:01 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.942 | $10.36 |
| 07-06 22:21 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.945 | $5.67 |
| 06-24 07:10 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 06-20 16:31 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 06-15 06:11 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 06-01 19:59 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.505 | $2.52 |
| 06-01 19:59 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.495 | $3.46 |
| 06-01 19:59 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 05-25 06:36 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $4.67 |
| 04-25 11:38 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.555 | $3.33 |
| 04-21 08:26 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $10.79 |
| 03-27 10:33 | Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.50 |
| 03-16 11:48 | Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $27.31 |