PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Orkh

0xba8f0a51044792a22d430046305c282f4893ad42

Realised P&L
$27.68
Volume
$54.0k
Markets traded
278
Open portfolio
$159.91

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded278
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration78.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2820.195$84.05$37.65
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? · Yes0.2000.115$21.85$16.15
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes0.5670.315$14.18$11.32
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.1140.065$12.35$9.35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2400.225$11.25$0.75
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes0.2940.290$7.02$0.10
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2900.145$5.00$5.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.2500.043$1.74$8.26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · Yes0.3300.255$0.77$0.23
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes0.0700.050$0.71$0.29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1900.115$0.61$0.39
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · No0.1900.075$0.39$0.61
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? · No0.0030.000$0.00$1.02
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? · No0.3730.000$0.00$11.20
Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? · No0.4300.000$0.00$1.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 14:01Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?SELL0.008$0.16
07-23 10:35US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?SELL0.38$22.80
07-23 10:34Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.13$28.99
07-20 08:47Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?SELL0.12$3.60
07-17 19:11Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?SELL0.24$7.20
07-14 19:56Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?BUY0.11$1.43
07-14 16:54Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?SELL0.31$5.00
07-14 07:54Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.19$5.70
07-13 17:58US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?SELL0.26$14.88
07-13 09:50Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.052$3.65
07-12 13:04Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?BUY0.3099999622$5.00
07-10 21:11Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?SELL0.05$2.73
07-10 21:07Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?BUY0.6099998597$1.00
07-10 21:04Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?SELL0.033$0.61
07-10 21:03Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?SELL0.53$2.65
Trader Orkh · PolyBot