0xba2cb3168709dc3880243586448d6d67afc2bf17
- Realised P&L
- $36.9k
- Volume
- $1.29M
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $7.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.6kat 0.695Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$9.8kat 0.500Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 1, 2022?
- +$8.0kat 0.071Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?
- +$7.5kat 0.632Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?
- +$6.8kat 0.500Will more than 2.10 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day between Jan. 1 and Jan. 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 23:09 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $792.00 |
| 07-29 23:09 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.6k |
| 07-29 23:06 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.8993091468 | $523.65 |
| 07-14 20:26 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $136.32 |
| 07-14 20:26 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $199.68 |
| 07-14 20:26 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $199.68 |
| 07-14 20:26 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.9576506024 | $317.94 |
| 07-14 19:57 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.951900718 | $1.3k |
| 07-14 19:57 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $217.80 |
| 07-14 18:47 | Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.5845635132 | $10.1k |
| 06-16 23:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $15.9k |
| 04-25 03:27 | Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.11 |
| 04-10 16:30 | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | BUY | 0.2099646883 | $112.14 |
| 04-10 02:15 | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%? | BUY | 0.453093087 | $87.56 |
| 04-10 02:15 | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | BUY | 0.534255346 | $402.24 |