0xB9F563D6970A37E604E2C9982EC4857E37388F3c-1761605581703
0xb9f563d6970a37e604e2c9982ec4857e37388f3c
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $68.7k
- Markets traded
- 272
- Open portfolio
- $176.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded272
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.890 | $89.01 | +$34.00 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No | 0.400 | 0.325 | $32.50 | −$7.50 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.176 | $17.65 | +$2.65 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.065 | $17.45 | −$33.60 |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.305 | $15.25 | +$7.75 |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.029 | $2.87 | −$7.13 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.065 | $0.97 | −$2.77 |
| Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $0.81 | −$1.13 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? · Yes | 0.428 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.36 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.99at 0.550Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
- +$76.98at 0.508Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$65.37at 0.350Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?
- +$58.51at 0.300Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?
- +$49.48at 0.222Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 19:10 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 06-21 19:09 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.0386193 | $3.86 |
| 06-21 19:07 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? | BUY | 0.46 | $5.98 |
| 06-21 19:07 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? | BUY | 0.4137931034 | $12.00 |
| 06-01 17:19 | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL | 0.2703415 | $54.07 |
| 06-01 12:13 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.192 | $38.40 |
| 06-01 12:13 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.193 | $38.60 |
| 05-30 18:32 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | BUY | 0.18 | $17.95 |
| 05-30 18:32 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.10 |
| 05-26 19:29 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | BUY | 0.55 | $6.78 |
| 05-15 10:40 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.1157684533 | $10.00 |
| 05-15 10:39 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.003 | $4.04 |
| 05-13 19:21 | Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 05-13 19:20 | Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? | BUY | 0.4023552484 | $100.00 |
| 05-13 19:19 | Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? | BUY | 0.3937007874 | $100.00 |