Piccata
0xb4eff3787ad46ba7940602677e01de9e284b9333
- Realised P&L
- $-37.47
- Volume
- $360.24
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $3.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.037 | $1.25 | −$3.75 |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.017 | $1.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.055 | $0.83 | −$4.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.33at 0.750Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
- +$1.57at 0.350Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$1.52at 0.210Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
- +$1.04at 0.250Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$0.88at 0.958Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-18 14:36 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.55 |
| 03-18 14:35 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.39 | $0.93 |
| 03-09 16:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.3290048318 | $0.98 |
| 03-09 16:25 | Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.52 |
| 03-09 16:25 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $11.35 |
| 02-23 23:57 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.7229081152 | $20.87 |
| 01-12 17:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.46 | $6.57 |
| 01-12 17:53 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $3.04 |
| 01-08 09:16 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 01-08 00:17 | Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 01-07 09:34 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $11.00 |
| 01-07 09:33 | Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 01-07 09:33 | Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | BUY | 0.0290000001 | $2.00 |
| 01-07 09:32 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.8399996472 | $2.00 |
| 01-07 09:31 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999985 | $10.00 |