longwa
0xb45df85f97eb22ff9047e2b5ae45bc0895b08188
- Realised P&L
- $9.36
- Volume
- $14.3k
- Markets traded
- 142
- Open portfolio
- $5.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded142
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? · No | 0.957 | 0.998 | $5.21 | +$0.21 |
| Nick Fuentes federally charged? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.035 | $0.70 | −$0.50 |
| Northeastern Huskies vs. Monmouth Hawks: O/U 145.5 · Under | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.78 |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.81 |
| Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 232.5 · Under | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.76 |
| Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 215.5 · Under | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.84 |
| Hurricanes vs. Capitals · Hurricanes | 0.797 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.94 |
| Blackhawks vs. Wild · Blackhawks | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.04 |
| Utah vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5 · Under | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.77 |
| Ducks vs. Flames · Flames | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.79 |
| Senators vs. Predators · Senators | 0.935 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.95 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-31? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.88 |
| Pacers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5 · Under | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.83 |
| Utah vs. Hurricanes · Utah | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.79 |
| Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Canisius Golden Griffins: O/U 134.5 · Under | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.55at 0.670Providence Friars vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
- +$30.99at 0.610Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18?
- +$30.99at 0.610Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)
- +$28.46at 0.770Panthers vs. Jets
- +$24.89at 0.660Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 15:03 | Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.85 | $6.00 |
| 07-04 15:01 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $5.13 |
| 07-04 15:01 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 10:15 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $5.30 |
| 05-10 13:43 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $5.00 |
| 05-10 13:41 | Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.9569998731 | $5.00 |
| 05-10 13:40 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9779999977 | $5.00 |
| 05-10 13:38 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599998618 | $5.00 |
| 02-12 02:27 | Spread: Hornets (-3.5) | BUY | 0.969 | $2.00 |
| 02-11 22:15 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.06 |
| 02-11 22:09 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? | BUY | 0.97 | $2.00 |
| 02-11 03:19 | Clippers vs. Rockets | SELL | 0.991 | $2.04 |
| 02-11 03:17 | Clippers vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.969 | $2.00 |
| 02-11 03:15 | Pacers vs. Knicks | SELL | 0.99 | $2.22 |
| 02-11 02:57 | Pacers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.89 | $1.99 |