kerakles
0xb38ea393a17280ebcfd9be6b47b161d5cdb8272b
- Realised P&L
- $-3.5k
- Volume
- $651.1k
- Markets traded
- 486
- Open portfolio
- $61.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded486
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$379.52at 0.456Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$295.76at 0.318Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?
- +$255.38at 0.085Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
- +$200.78at 0.160US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$178.94at 0.237Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 18:19 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.999 | $45.76 |
| 08-03 18:11 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.0099763893 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 18:10 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:26 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 14:47 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.0115455667 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:47 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.046351085 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:17 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.289999964 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 14:11 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0227272727 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:10 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0299999857 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 14:10 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:09 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.082872921 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 14:07 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.5599999958 | $16.00 |
| 08-03 12:57 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.0095238095 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.20 |
| 08-03 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.0571247051 | $3.00 |