PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

kerakles

0xb38ea393a17280ebcfd9be6b47b161d5cdb8272b

Realised P&L
$-3.5k
Volume
$651.1k
Markets traded
486
Open portfolio
$61.60

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded486
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 18:19Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3?SELL0.999$45.76
08-03 18:11Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 4?BUY0.0099763893$1.00
08-03 18:10Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5?BUY0.04$1.00
08-03 16:26Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5?BUY0.05$2.00
08-03 14:47Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 4?BUY0.0115455667$1.00
08-03 14:47Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 4?BUY0.046351085$1.00
08-03 14:17Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3?BUY0.289999964$5.00
08-03 14:11Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 5?BUY0.0227272727$1.00
08-03 14:10Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 5?BUY0.0299999857$2.00
08-03 14:10Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5?BUY0.05$1.00
08-03 14:09Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4?BUY0.082872921$10.00
08-03 14:07Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3?BUY0.5599999958$16.00
08-03 12:57Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 4?BUY0.0095238095$1.00
08-03 12:35Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 3?BUY0.04$0.20
08-03 12:35Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 3?BUY0.0571247051$3.00
Trader kerakles · PolyBot