mnak3652
0xb358049aaff5b731abcae949a794e23a13164ba9
- Realised P&L
- $-26.78
- Volume
- $93.9k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $9.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.521 | 0.370 | $3.55 | −$1.45 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.036 | $2.81 | −$7.19 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.505 | $1.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will Sui reach $1.60 before 2027? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.525 | $1.11 | −$0.89 |
| Rockets vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Lakers vs. Rockets · Rockets | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.97 |
| Iona Gaels vs. Canisius Golden Griffins · Canisius Golden Griffins | 0.182 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Bucks · Mavericks | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 27? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Celtics vs. 76ers · Celtics | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Lakers · Mavericks | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Heat vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.74at 0.390Nuggets vs. Clippers
- +$42.78at 0.450Knicks vs. 76ers
- +$38.82at 0.340Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
- +$36.67at 0.120New Orleans Privateers vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
- +$18.82at 0.680Heat vs. Celtics
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 06:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 07-03 04:14 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.8599999656 | $2.00 |
| 06-28 08:34 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5209152191 | $5.00 |
| 05-27 09:17 | Will Sui reach $1.60 before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 05-14 02:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 04-30 10:45 | Celtics vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 04-23 07:49 | Lakers vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $4.93 |
| 03-01 13:59 | Kings vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.8699999996 | $70.00 |
| 02-24 03:17 | Jazz vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.9099999992 | $60.00 |
| 02-24 03:16 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $2.5k |
| 02-24 02:54 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.993 | $2.5k |
| 02-23 06:57 | New Orleans Privateers vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 02-23 06:56 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $2.5k |
| 02-23 06:40 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $2.5k |
| 02-22 13:24 | Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Marist Red Foxes | BUY | 0.7799999944 | $25.00 |