eth20000000
0xb1bf8085299bc75d472a177d76493c4ac3a5f74b
- Realised P&L
- $20.8k
- Volume
- $1.41M
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.205 | $3.9k | −$1.8k |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.598 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.3k |
| Spread: France (-1.5) · France | 0.195 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$585.00 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$69.10 |
| Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.37 |
| Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$712.50 |
| Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.7k |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · England | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.8k |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.145 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$700.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.6kat 0.180Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?
- +$15.9kat 0.479Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
- +$8.4kat 0.529Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?
- +$8.2kat 0.054Spread: Australia (-1.5)
- +$8.0kat 0.810Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:16 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $571.27 |
| 07-29 17:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.745 | $152.38 |
| 07-29 15:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.73 | $1.1k |
| 07-29 11:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.757 | $181.68 |
| 07-29 05:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.779 | $7.4k |
| 07-29 05:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.778 | $326.75 |
| 07-15 06:20 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5399999999 | $848.06 |
| 07-15 06:19 | Spread: England (-1.5) | BUY | 0.1449999998 | $700.00 |
| 07-15 06:19 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.54 | $5.0k |
| 07-13 16:45 | France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.7725 | $5.2k |
| 07-13 16:43 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5975 | $3.3k |
| 07-13 16:42 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4125 | $2.0k |
| 07-13 16:41 | Spread: France (-1.5) | BUY | 0.195 | $585.00 |
| 06-17 05:55 | Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? | BUY | 0.72185004 | $3.6k |
| 06-17 04:31 | Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? | SELL | 0.11 | $12.36 |