0x249208ca
0xafc11a558924778c6706b173369bf7ceeca5a179
- Realised P&L
- $25.78
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 374
- Open portfolio
- $1.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded374
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $1.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be negative? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.085 | $0.13 | −$0.09 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.030 | $0.12 | −$0.45 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.61at 0.019Will Netherlands win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$17.65at 0.040Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 26?
- +$17.18at 0.050Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 31?
- +$16.06at 0.056Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
- +$15.48at 0.100Who will win the gold medal in Women's Skateboard Vert Best Trick at X Games New Orleans 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 06:26 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 06:26 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.22 |
| 07-31 06:26 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $7.44 |
| 07-31 06:03 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-31 06:03 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 06:03 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.9391805 | $18.78 |
| 07-30 12:45 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.36 |
| 07-30 11:15 | Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.79 |
| 07-29 11:05 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 29? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.47 |
| 07-29 11:04 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.71 |
| 07-29 08:03 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.09 |
| 07-29 07:46 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.81 | $15.50 |
| 07-29 07:46 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.25 |
| 07-29 07:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 07-29 07:09 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29? | SELL | 0.62 | $6.26 |